Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Projects Continued Momentum in U.S. Hiring Intentions

Dec 12, 2012 No Comments by

MILWAUKEE, Dec. 12, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — Optimism among U.S. hiring decision makers continues to improve as a slightly increased hiring pace is expected for Quarter 1 2013, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today by ManpowerGroup. When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Net Employment Outlook for Quarter 1 2013 is +12%, a 1 percentage point increase from Quarter 4 2012 and slightly elevated from +9% during the same period last year.

This quarter’s research concludes:

- Strongest First Quarter Outlook in Five Years: The Quarter 1 2013 Net Employment Outlook is the strongest first quarter data collected since 2008, and is significantly stronger than the weakest first quarter Outlook in the history of the survey, reported in 2010.

- Improvement in Retail Sector: Nationally, the Wholesale & Retail Trade industry sector anticipates an increase in hiring in Quarter 1 2013. Typically, there is a decline in hiring plans at the start of a new year.

- Positive Trend in Northeast and West: Employers in the Northeast and West anticipate increases in hiring in Quarter 1 2013. Compared to this time last year, employers in the Northeast indicate a 4 percentage point increase, while employers in the West expect to increase hiring by 7 percentage points.

 

 

To complement the Quarter 1 2013 survey results, an infographic is available for download at http://press.manpower.com/. “Where the Jobs Are” offers a snapshot of data and trends from the survey, including key state and metro area-specific Outlooks along with an industry forecast.

“The Outlook has shown no setbacks over the last 15 quarters, which reflects an ongoing state of rebuilding as employers learn to function within a state of volatility,” said Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup president. “Over the past few years, we have seen continued incremental growth in hiring projections, which reinforces this job growth is slow but sustained.”

Of the more than 18,000 employers surveyed, 17 percent expect to add to their workforces in Quarter 1 2013, while 8 percent expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +9%. When seasonally adjusted, the Net Employment Outlook becomes +12%. Seventy-two percent of employers expect no change in their hiring plans. The final 3 percent of employers indicate they are undecided about their hiring intentions.

“Historically, the trend has been for Wholesale & Retail Trade employers to tighten up staff counts after the holiday rush,” said Prising. “This quarter, we’re actually seeing plans to increase hiring, which is notable and reflects a boost in consumer confidence.”

Hiring Outlooks for Industry Sectors and Regions

For Quarter 1 2013, employers have a positive Outlook in 12 of the 13 industry sectors included in the survey: Wholesale & Retail Trade (+17%), Leisure & Hospitality (+14%), Professional & Business Services (+13%), Information (+12%), Financial Activities (+11%), Education & Health Services (+8%), Government (+8%), Mining (+7%), Other Services (+7%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+5%), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (+5%) and Transportation & Utilities (+4%). Employers in one industry sector have a negative Outlook: Construction (-2%). When the industry sector data is compared quarter-over-quarter, employers in the Information, Other Services and Government sectors anticipate a slight hiring increase. Staff levels are expected to remain relatively stable among employers in seven industry sectors: Nondurable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation & Utilities, Wholesale & Retail Trade, Financial Activities, Professional & Business Services, Education & Health Services and Leisure & Hospitality. The Mining, Construction and Durable Goods Manufacturing sectors anticipate a slight decrease in the hiring pace.

A positive Net Employment Outlook is reported in all four U.S. regions. When seasonal variations are removed from the data, quarter-over-quarter plans to add employees remain essentially unchanged among employers in the Midwest and South, while employers in the Northeast and West expect hiring to slightly increase. Compared to one year ago at this time, employers in the Midwest expect a relatively stable hiring environment, employers in the Northeast and South project a slight increase in hiring and employers in the West expect a moderate increase in the hiring pace for Quarter 1 2013.

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